What are the chances that the revolutions of the Arab Spring succeed at creating democracies? According to a regression model created Jay Ulfelder: maybe.
[T]he probability that each of those new democracies would make it to their sixth birthday…:
- Tunisia: 82%
- Egypt: 48%
- Libya: 89%
Ulfelder’s blog post is worth the read. It’s an excellent (if somewhat technical) example of how to do (and write up) some quick research, and how the ability to blog is changing the way scientists share ideas, and get feedback (check out the comments section).