Wiggle Matching: Sorting out the Global Warming Curve

To figure out if the climate is actually warming we need to extract from the global temperature curve all the wiggles caused by other things, like volcanic eruptions and El Nino/La Nina events. The resulting trend is quite striking.

I’m teaching pre-Calculus using a graphical approach, and my students’ latest project is to model the trends in the rising carbon dioxide record in a similar way. They’re matching curves (exponential, parabolic, sinusoidal) to the data and subtracting them till they get down to the background noise.

Carbon dioxide concentration (ppm) measured at the Mona Loa observatory in Hawaii shows exponential growth and a periodic annual variation.

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