Tag: global warming

Warming of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

… a breakup of the ice sheet, … could raise global sea levels by 10 feet, possibly more.

— Gillis (2012): Scientists Report Faster Warming in Antarctica in The New York Times.

In an excellent article, Justin Gillis highlights a new paper that shows the West Antarctic Ice sheet to be one of the fastest warming places on Earth.

The black star shows the Byrd Station. The colors show the number of melting days over Antarctica in January 2005. This number increases with warming temperatures (image from supplementary material in Bromwich et al., 2012).

Note to math students: The scientists use linear regression to get the rate of temperature increase.

The record reveals a linear increase in annual temperature between 1958 and 2010 by 2.4±1.2 °C, establishing central West Antarctica as one of the fastest-warming regions globally.

— Bromwich et al., (2012): Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth in Nature.

Drought on the Mississippi

Last summer’s drought, and more weather extremes probably due to large-scale global climate change, is having dire effects on shipping on the Mississippi River. Suzanne Goldenberg has an excellent article in the Guardian.

Students look upstream at the Missouri River from the Melvin Price lock and dam, just north of St. Louis, and close to its confluence with the Mississippi River. The dam is tasked with maintaining about 9ft of water in the river for shipping.

Shipping companies say the economic consequences of a shutdown on the Mississippi would be devastating. About $7bn (£4.3bn) in vital commodities – typically grain, coal, heating oil, and cement – moves on the river at this time of year. Cutting off the transport route would have an impact across the mid-west and beyond.

…

Farmers in the area lost up to three-quarters of their corn and soya bean crops to this year’s drought. … Now, however, [they] are facing the prospect of not being able to sell their grain at all because they can’t get it to market. The farmers may also struggle to find other bulk items, such as fertiliser, that are typically shipped by barge.

— Goldenberg (2012): Mississippi river faces shipping freeze as water levels drop in The Guardian.

The proposed solution is to release more water from the Missouri, however there would be a steep price to pay.

The shipping industry in St Louis wants the White House to order the release of more water from the Missouri river, which flows into the Mississippi, to keep waters high enough for the long barges to float down the river to New Orleans.

…

Sending out more water from the Missouri would doom states upstream, such as Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota, which depend on water from the Missouri and are also caught in the drought.

“There are farmers and ranchers up there with livestock that don’t have water to stay alive. They don’t have enough fodder. They don’t have enough irrigation water,” said Robert Criss, a hydrologist at Washington University in St Louis, who has spent his career studying the Mississippi. “What a dumb way to use water during a drought.”

$10.09 per ton of Carbon Dioxide

… one metric ton of carbon dioxide is what’s produced by an average month of electricity use in a U.S. home.

— Troeh (2012): California’s first carbon auction launches pollution market on Marketplace.

California recently auctioned off a set of carbon emission permits as the start of an effort to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses with an emissions trading system.

The first 23.1 million permits sold out at $10.09 per ton.

Eve Troeh discusses:

Cranberries and Climate Change

The problem with global climate change and agriculture not only that it will probably make it harder to grow crops as the continents dry, but also that where you can grow thing will also change as ecological regions shift. Places where there are long traditions of crops such as sugar maples and cranberries will have to adapt, and often, adapting isn’t easy. This article from Marketplace looks at cranberries in Massachusetts.

New York Mayor on Climate

Just a few days after the devastation of Hurricane Sandy, New York mayor Michael Bloomberg considered the role of climate change:

… The floods and fires that swept through our city left a path of destruction that will require years of recovery and rebuilding work. And in the short term, our subway system remains partially shut down, and many city residents and businesses still have no power. In just 14 months, two hurricanes have forced us to evacuate neighborhoods – something our city government had never done before. If this is a trend, it is simply not sustainable.

Our climate is changing. And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be – given this week’s devastation – should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.

Here in New York, our comprehensive sustainability plan – PlaNYC – has helped allow us to cut our carbon footprint by 16 percent in just five years, which is the equivalent of eliminating the carbon footprint of a city twice the size of Seattle. Through the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group – a partnership among many of the world’s largest cities – local governments are taking action where national governments are not.

But we can’t do it alone. We need leadership from the White House – and over the past four years, President Barack Obama has taken major steps to reduce our carbon consumption, including setting higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars and trucks. His administration also has adopted tighter controls on mercury emissions, which will help to close the dirtiest coal power plants (an effort I have supported through my philanthropy), which are estimated to kill 13,000 Americans a year.

Mitt Romney, too, has a history of tackling climate change. As governor of Massachusetts, he signed on to a regional cap- and-trade plan designed to reduce carbon emissions 10 percent below 1990 levels. “The benefits (of that plan) will be long- lasting and enormous – benefits to our health, our economy, our quality of life, our very landscape. These are actions we can and must take now, if we are to have ‘no regrets’ when we transfer our temporary stewardship of this Earth to the next generation,” he wrote at the time.

— Michael R. Bloomberg, 2012: A Vote for a President to Lead on Climate Change in Bloomberg.com.

↬ The Dish

While NPR has an article on a proposed, multi-billion dollar, offshore barrier to prevent the storm surge.

Since we’re talking about environmental economics at the moment, I played the interview, had my students read the Bloomberg excerpt, and then provoked a discussion of the value of human life with the question, “If the proposed $10 billion project could save 50 lives, would it be worth it?”

To keep the discussion focused I asked them to ignore all the other possible benefits of the barrier.

It’s a really tricky issue to deal with, but we ended up talking about how the U.S. government estimates the monetary value of human life. According to a recent New York Times article, values range from $6.1 million (Dept. of Transportation) to $9.1 million (EPA).

The business community historically has pushed for regulators to put a dollar value on life, part of a broader campaign to make agencies prove that the benefits of proposed regulations exceed the costs.

But some business groups are reconsidering the effectiveness of cost-benefit analysis as a check on regulations. The United States Chamber of Commerce is now campaigning for Congress to assert greater control over the rule-making process, reflecting a judgment that formulas may offer less reliable protection than politicians.

Some consumer groups, meanwhile, find themselves cheering the government’s results but reluctant to embrace the method. Advocates for increased regulation have long argued that cost-benefit analysis understates both the value of life and the benefits of government oversight.

— Appelbaum (2011): As U.S. Agencies Put More Value on a Life, Businesses Fret in the New York Times.

Melting Permafrost and a Warming Climate: Another not-so-Positive Feedback

There’s a lot of organic matter frozen into the arctic permafrost. As the arctic has been warming much faster than the rest of the planet, the permafrost soils are thawing out quite quickly. As they unfreeze, they set up a positive-feedback loop. The warming organic matter starts to decay releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, exacerbating the warming.

To generate the estimates, scientists studied how permafrost-affected soils, known as Gelisols, thaw under various climate scenarios. They found that all Gelisols are not alike: some Gelisols have soil materials that are very peaty, with lots of decaying organic matter that burns easily – these will impart newly thawed nitrogen into the ecosystem and atmosphere. Other Gelisols have materials that are very nutrient rich – these will impart a lot of nitrogen into the ecosystem. All Gelisols will contribute carbon dioxide and likely some methane into the atmosphere as a result of decomposition once the permafrost thaws – and these gases will contribute to warming. What was frozen for thousands of years will enter our ecosystems and atmosphere as a new contributor.

— Harden and Lausten (2012): Not-So-Permanent Permafrost via USGS Newsroom.

Blowing Bubbles to Acidify Water

Changing colors of universal indicator show how blowing bubbles acidifies water (light green-second beaker) from neutral pH (dark green-third beaker) standard. For comparison, the first beaker (red) is acidified while the last beaker (blue) is made alkaline.

CO2 + H2O —-> H2CO3

This useful little reaction, where carbon dioxide reacts with water to produce carbonic acid, came up in my middle school class when we talked about respiration, it’ll come up soon in environmental science with the effects of carbon dioxide on the oceans (acidification), and it offers the opportunity to discuss pH and balancing chemical reactions in chemistry.

The middle school class did the neat little experiment where students blow bubbles in water (through a straw), and the carbon dioxide in their breath reacts with the water to slightly acidify it. A little universal pH indicator in the water (or even cabbage juice indicator) shows the acidification pretty well if you make sure to keep a standard nearby so students can see the change in color.

The fact that the CO2 in your breath is enough to acidify water begs the question — which was asked — how much of the air you exhale is carbon dioxide? According to the Oak Ridge Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center’s FAQ page, it’s concentration is about 3.7% by volume. Which is a lot more than the 0.04% average of the atmosphere.

Of course if you really want to talk about the pH you need to get into the acid equilibrium and the dissociation of the carbonic acid to produce H+ ions; you can get the these details here.